Tragedy struck Iran with the fatal helicopter accident claiming the lives of President Ebrahim Raisi and high-ranking officials, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, during adverse weather near the Azerbaijan border.
This unforeseen event has caused a significant void in Iranian politics, necessitating an understanding of what comes next for the nation’s governance.
The Iranian constitution specifies the steps to be taken when the presidency is suddenly vacated. With the Supreme Leader’s endorsement, the First Vice President steps in as an interim leader.
This has brought Mohammad Mokhber to the forefront as the temporary president, mandated to serve for sixty days.
During this interim phase, a special council, including prominent government figures such as the Islamic Consultative Assembly Speaker and the judiciary head, is mandated to organize presidential elections within fifty days.
Preceding parliamentary elections have seen notably low participation from the electorate, reflecting a disconnect between the regime and its citizens. This raises questions about the upcoming presidential race and whether the Guardian Council will permit more diverse political candidates.
Consideration now turns to Mohammad Javad Zarif, the refined key player in devising the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
His recent interactions with student bodies and critical forums have fueled rumors about his potential candidacy for the presidency following Raisi’s term.
In the Foreign Ministry, a similar succession plan unfolds, with the constitution allowing an interim foreign minister to serve up to three months before parliament confirms a new appointee.
Ali Bagheri Kani, a conservative diplomat conversant with the country’s nuclear negotiations, has stepped in as the acting foreign minister.
From an external viewpoint, while the Iranian president traditionally manages the executive branch, ultimate power, especially on national security issues, lies with the Supreme Leader.
Consequently, Raisi’s untimely demise isn’t anticipated to pivot Iran’s foreign policy dramatically. Nonetheless, the sudden loss of key figures might impact Tehran’s interactions with regional allies and proxies, not to mention spotlight the perceived vulnerability of the ruling regime against a backdrop of targeted assassinations of IRGC commanders.
Iran is weathering a crisis of political legitimacy marked by economic distress, pervasive corruption, and sanctions.
The schism between state policies and public sentiment has been laid bare by the recent intense reaction to social and political policies, such as mandatory hijab laws.
Watching how the leadership change might reveal political elite divisions and public discontent is part of understanding Iran’s immediate future.
Given the IRGC’s extensive reach in Iran’s domestic and regional spheres, it is expected to play a consequential role in the unfolding events.
